Thread

1. closetheloopdev · 1785951439 · focus · HN ↗

   With the top AI personnel leaving Google, I wonder what will happen to their Gemini. Right now they still have a lead in inference hardware with TPUs but with both Anthropic and OpenAI developing their own chips, I wonder how long until either one will catch up.

   1. possibilistic · 1785953551 · focus · HN ↗

      2023: Google is doomed. They're not building AI. No wonder the "Attention" authors left. Google just sat on this. Their PMs are steering them into oblivion. OpenAI is winning while Google takes no risks. Innovator's dilemma. Google Search is doomed.

      2024: Google is on fire. Sergey coming back helped. Gemini, Veo. They've caught up. OpenAI is doomed.

      2025: Google is seriously winning now. Nano Banana!! Google was destined to be the true winner of AI.

      2026 H1: Google is slow as hell. Where is Gemini? Google is not launching anything, meanwhile just look at everyone else. Anthropic! And open source. What the hell are they doing over there?

      2026 H2: Everyone is leaving Google. Google is doomed. PMs are destroying the company. They don't take risks.

      Meanwhile, Microsoft: "Copilot!"

      1. christophilus · 1785953671 · focus · HN ↗

         My predictions about everything ever, summarized perfectly. I need an “inverse me ETF”.
      2. closetheloopdev · 1785954480 · focus · HN ↗

         It seems Google has to play both offense and defense: competing against frontier labs' models while protecting search and ads. They also have to be mindful of not doing anything that could hurt their own search or ads. That seems harder than a frontier lab just doing offense on both models and search/ads.

         Having said that, I think Google's moat is still strong with Cloud, Gmail, YouTube, Android, Chrome, etc.

      3. logicchains · 1785955186 · focus · HN ↗

         >Meanwhile, Microsoft: "Copilot!"

         The difference is nobody expects anything better from Microsoft. Teams didn't exactly set the bar high.

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