Thread

Changes at Google DeepMind: Demis Hassabis from CEO to Chair, Jeff Dean departs

810 points · 862 comments · colesantiago

tcp_handshaker · 1785949240 · focus · HN ↗
No AGI on the horizon and that ROI horizon approaching fast is going to make Ed Zitron a superstar.
If Demis Hassabis got a Nobel prize for being a Project Manager, is Zitron up for the Nobel on Economy for excellence in economic forecast?
1. ryeights · 1785950679 · focus · HN ↗
  Ed Zitron has predicted 16 of the last 0 AI bubble bursts...
  But more seriously, this has to do with DeepMind falling way behind the frontier in intelligence and cost per task. There's basically no reason to use a Gemini model today.
  1. dminik · 1785951974 · focus · HN ↗
    Tbf, he only has to get it right once.
2. reducesuffering · 1785952424 · focus · HN ↗
  Superstar? This Ed Zitron?
  "Based on estimates of their burn rate and historic analyses, I hypothesize that OpenAI will collapse in the next 12-24 months unless it raises more funding than in the history of the valley and creates an entirely new form of AI."
  -July 29, 2024
  <a href="https://x.com/edzitron/status/1817955630784917548" rel="nofollow">https://x.com/edzitron/status/1817955630784917548
  1. root-parent · 1785952833 · focus · HN ↗
    And they did raise new funding as he predicted...Since July 2024, OpenAI has raised or secured roughly $170 billion in new capital. Numbers never see before. So yes its the one, and remarkably right so far.
  2. hajile · 1785953502 · focus · HN ↗
    As it stands, the leaked financials prove him correct. Given their losses (not counting restructuring) they are going to need enough funding to buy any of the bottom 300-400 of the F500 companies outright just to keep the lights on for the next year.
    To say that’s an outrageous amount isn’t overstating in the slightest.
    Given they are already being forced to drop inference prices in an attempt to compete with Chinese providers, I don’t know if billionaire investors will be willing to hand out that much money this time around if they can’t generate enough value to break even despite the hype.
3. jvwww · 1785952973 · focus · HN ↗
  I don't understand any of the praise for Zitron. He is saying very obvious things and gets timelines wrong all the time. What's special about that?
4. vessenes · 1785953131 · focus · HN ↗
  Public warning: please don't trade on Ed's idiotic analyses. Or if you do, look at his track record so far, and apply the Kelley Criterion to your bet sizing.
5. andsoitis · 1785955910 · focus · HN ↗
  > If Demis Hassabis got a Nobel prize for being a Project Manager
  His accomplishments are far beyond project manager. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demis_Hassabis" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demis_Hassabis
  1. aborsy · 1785957862 · focus · HN ↗
    Nobel was awarded due to project management work. There are many thousands of scientists with work much much better than what Demis has done.

Open on Hacker News to reply ↗

Unofficial Hacker News client; not affiliated with Y Combinator.