Thread

1. atleastoptimal · 1785947160 · focus · HN ↗

   I think there's one weirdly simple reason DeepMind isn't doing as well as OpenAI and Anthropic. I may be wrong on this.

   OpenAI and Anthropic went from tiny startups to huge companies. As a consequence the stock options/RSU's offered to the employees paid off a far higher percentage ROI than any stock options a DeepMind (and thus Google) employee would get (since Google is already huge). This disincentivizes people who truly believe in the economically transformative power of AI to work at Google since their benefits will be capped by Google being large + having public company obligations.

   1. jmyeet · 1785948187 · focus · HN ↗

      We'll see if anyone gets to cash in on those. All you need is one down round and that gets wiped out. Or if the IPO gets delayed and disappoints then the stock can drop well before the lockouts expire. OpenAI and Anthropic are essentially offering Monopoly money in the hopes that one day you can exchange it for real money.

      1. tonfa · 1785949051 · focus · HN ↗

         > OpenAI and Anthropic are essentially offering Monopoly money in the hopes that one day you can exchange it for real money.

         I thought employees have already had opportunities to cash out (there's enough funding rounds for that).

         (Tho how much you can sell was limited, iirc to double digit millions...)

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